Before The Data compares each artist against their own recent baseline and their follower-size tier. Alerts fire when the move is large enough to clear the current model’s signal floor and unlikely to be normal noise.
Streaming Spike
Spotify streams
We calculate recent Spotify stream velocity, compare it to the artist’s prior baseline, and then apply the artist’s follower-size tier. Emerging artists can trigger on smaller absolute moves; larger artists need a larger stream move to clear the floor.
Follower Spike
TikTok or Instagram
We compare recent follower growth against the artist’s follower-size tier. TikTok follower alerts require both an absolute gain and a percentage lift. Instagram follower alerts use the same tiered floor system for meaningful audience movement.
TikTok Post Moving
TikTok post metrics
We compare a post’s views, likes, comments, shares, and saves with the artist’s own recent TikTok posts at a similar age. A post must have a usable recent baseline and clear enough separation from that baseline to rule out normal variation. No single public metric creates the alert by itself.
Instagram Post Moving
Instagram post metrics
We compare the post with the artist’s own recent Instagram posts at a similar age, using only the public metrics the platform makes available. The model looks for a material lift across the available view and engagement signals, not a one-off change in a single number.
Cross-Platform Spike
Multiple signals
This fires when more than one independent signal clears its floor in the same short window — for example Spotify movement plus TikTok, Instagram, or UGC movement. It is weighted higher because the momentum is being confirmed in more than one place.
UGC Accelerating
TikTok or Instagram UGC
We track song-level TikTok and Instagram UGC counts and compare the current creation pace against the prior pace. The alert fires when fan-created content is accelerating enough to clear the artist’s tiered UGC floor.
Small Artist Breakout
Early-stage artists
For smaller artists, the model watches for early moves across listeners, followers, streams, and UGC. A breakout alert fires when the artist clears an early-stage floor or shows a sharp baseline jump that is meaningful for their size.
Release Alerts
Release detection
One alert is created per new drop. Albums and EPs are treated as one release alert, not one alert per song. The tracks stay attached to the release so the system can keep watching them after launch.
Track Promotion
Weekly release recheck
After a release alert, dormant tracks are rechecked weekly. If one track later clears the same signal floors used by the current alert model — streams, TikTok UGC, or Instagram UGC — it is promoted into full tracking, and that promotion fires an alert.
